Kalshi Weather Trading: Get an Edge on Temperature Markets
Kalshi's daily weather markets let traders take positions on the high temperature across 20 US cities. Prices move with every forecast update — and that's where an informed view pays off. Kumo Edge pairs ensemble weather model output with live Kalshi prices, showing you where the market price diverges from what the forecast distribution implies.
Why temperature markets are tradable
Each Kalshi temperature market is structured as brackets around a forecast high and settles on the National Weather Service climate report. Public forecasts and raw model output often disagree in the days before settlement — that gap between the ensemble forecast and the posted odds is the opportunity Kumo Edge surfaces.
What Kumo Edge gives you
- Ensemble-based probability for each Kalshi temperature bracket.
- Side-by-side view of GFS, ECMWF and other model output vs. the current market price.
- Coverage for daily high-temperature markets across 20 US cities.
Frequently asked questions
How do Kalshi weather markets settle?
On the official NWS high temperature for the reference station, typically released the following morning.
Which cities are covered?
20 US cities — daily high-temperature markets.
Does Kumo Edge cover Polymarket too?
Yes — Kumo Edge covers both Kalshi and Polymarket weather markets from one forecast engine. See our Polymarket weather page.